The Impact of Prioritisation and Dosing Intervals on the Effects of COVID-19 Vaccination in Europe: An Agent-Based Cohort Model

Background: Different strategies are being explored to maximise the effect of COVID-19 vaccination in Europe. We studied impact different population prioritisation and dose intervals on infections, hospitalisations, mortality, public health restrictions. Method: An agent-based model was built quantify over 6 months. Input parameters were derived from recent phase 3 trials official European figures. vulnerable people, care-home staff residents, contagious groups 12 weeks. Findings: Prioritising rather than most groups, led higher prevalence, but clear reductions hospital admissions, restrictions. At a realistic speed ≤0·1% population/day, separating doses by (instead 3) weeks reduced restrictions for vaccines with similar first- second-dose efficacy (e.g., Oxford-AstraZeneca Moderna vaccines), not those lower first-dose Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine). Interpretation: Mass should dramatically reduce Europe’s economy. Early populations will compared groups. The choice interval between be based expected vaccine availability efficacy, 12-week preferred shorter scenarios. Funding Statement: research supported National Institute Health Research (NIHR) Oxford Biomedical Centre (BRC). DPA is funded through NIHR Senior Fellowship (Grant number SRF-2018-11-ST2-004). views expressed this publication author(s) necessarily NHS, or department Health. CP partially Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovacion, Gobierno Espana grant PGC2018-095456-B-I00. MC La Caixa Foundation (ID 100010434), under agreement LCF/PR/GN17/50300003. Declaration Interests: Dr. Prats reports grants (PGC2018-095456-B-I00), during conduct study; other Commission, DG-CONNECT (CNECT/LUX/2020/LVP/0085, LC-01591965), outside submitted work. Prieto-Alhambra AMGEN, grants, non-financial support UCB Biopharma, Les Laboratoires Servier, work; HTA Funding Committee membership. Janssen, behalf IMI-funded EHDEN EMIF consortiums, Synapse Management Partners have training programmes organised DPA's open external participants. CATALA (PGC2018-095456-B- I00), LCF/PR/GN17/50300003, Ms. Li has nothing disclose. Ethics Approval Only aggregated data used study. use such does require ethics approval.